Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 21.819695 23.729863 25.795619 28.206923 30.958687 34.018304 37.701616
2025-10-19 19.053767 21.697122 24.758213 28.610320 33.394413 39.232103 47.042235
2025-10-26 16.836991 19.847864 23.522516 28.433176 34.979001 43.647413 56.447841
2025-11-02 15.177944 18.388877 22.476690 28.219215 36.355676 47.955958 66.778354
2025-11-09 13.961211 17.306097 21.719386 28.194496 37.886556 52.693597 79.064535
2025-11-16 12.938030 16.344181 20.974752 28.026420 39.105127 57.136479 92.269571
2025-11-23 12.089958 15.522475 20.311218 27.847548 40.218743 61.584872 107.075057
2025-11-30 11.364601 14.797802 19.697163 27.636770 41.201938 65.976533 123.560534
2025-12-07 10.788999 14.232661 19.252017 27.615617 42.471253 71.164438 144.315734
2025-12-14 10.251741 13.677679 18.764321 27.451786 43.434918 75.959762 166.756540
2025-12-21 10.021828 13.556745 18.925835 28.382894 46.581435 86.257737 212.068478
2025-12-28 9.561146 13.051397 18.432966 28.110367 47.315580 91.281988 244.752129
2026-01-04 9.178590 12.651487 18.093754 28.103890 48.660797 98.422308 293.573705
2026-01-11 8.879850 12.363755 17.916444 28.376825 50.666409 108.085192 366.948184
2026-01-18 8.515435 11.949282 17.494761 28.140278 51.506710 114.881069 438.375820
2026-01-25 8.181298 11.563834 17.093937 27.900013 52.301167 121.922663 527.123864
2026-02-01 7.907041 11.259731 16.811035 27.861408 53.576433 131.122637 658.163057
2026-02-08 7.633302 10.941251 16.480131 27.689317 54.494081 139.606091 816.803238
2026-02-15 7.378836 10.641385 16.161962 27.510236 55.367540 148.450621 1026.794215
2026-02-22 7.138150 10.352566 15.844938 27.301547 56.131596 157.374351 1304.698247
2026-03-01 6.939623 10.125242 15.625301 27.279992 57.414355 169.317844 1765.942429
2026-03-08 6.735254 9.878287 15.354098 27.118660 58.279043 180.064532 2387.817220
2026-03-15 6.680398 9.885122 15.555588 28.033146 62.517280 210.556330 4814.532139